Week 4 Picks

NFL.com Harrison (Lions 23 Cowboys 17:  Picking the Lions to win. While I trust the Cowboys' defense ... for some reason, Dallas has never played well against Detroit. There was a thriller at the Silverdome in 1981, when Eddie Murray delivered a game-winner at the gun for the underdog Lions. Or the 1991 playoff matchup, when Barry Sanders made Ken Norton (now the Seahawks' DC) do a 180 on a spectacular touchdown run. Or the time the Cowboys blew a huge second-half lead in 2011, highlighted by a Bobby Carpenter pick-six (ooh, now that is insulting). What about the Calvin Johnson 300-yard game in 2013? Sure, Tony Romo and the Cowboys bested Detroit in the 2014 playoffs. But unlike Dallas' current QB, Romo could throw for 200 yards in a game, so it's not a fair comparison. Matthew Stafford can also hit that mark -- and will. Lions win.):  http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000967039/article/nfl-week-4-game-picks-pats-over-dolphins-browns-win-again

Game Theory: Week 4 win probabilities, score predictions (Lions are picked to win 24-21):   http://www.nfl.com/videos/detroit-lions/0ap3000000967055/Game-Theory-Week-4-win-probabilities-score-predictions

CBS Wilson's Picks (Detroit at Dallas:  A week ago, the Lions looked more likely to win the No. 1 pick in the 2019 NFL Draft than win a football game. And then they went out and embarrassed the Patriots on national television. Detroit may have finally found a running game with rookie Kerryon Johnson and veteran LeGarrette Blount, and Kenny Golladay may be the best wide receiver no one is talking about. The Cowboys, meanwhile, have limped through the first three weeks of the season, beating a bad Giants team in Week 2 before looking completely lost against the Seahawks last Sunday. The offense is in shambles. Dak Prescott more resembles a replacement-level backup than franchise talent in line for a huge payday; the offensive line hasn't been good, and viable receiving options have yet to reveal themselves. So yeah.  Pick: Lions 35, Cowboys 14):  https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/nfl-week-4-odds-picks-baker-mayfield-wins-in-first-nfl-start-titans-beat-eagles-lions-destroy-cowboys/

SN's Week 4 Picks (Detroit Lions (1-2) at Dallas Cowboys (1-2):  It’s hard to trust any NFL team from week-to-week, and the Lions are living proof. Are they the team that got embarrassed on the biggest of stages by the Jets … or the one that sowed seeds of doubt into the Patriots two weeks later … or the one that woke up nearly in time in San Francisco after sleepwalking through three quarters? The Cowboys, though, are proving to be what we thought they were: an offense with one threat, Ezekiel Elliott, who hasn’t been enough.  Prediction: Lions, 16-14): http://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/news/week-4-nfl-picks-predictions-browns-raiders-ravens-steelers-saints-giants/kr10goge5vzq1vp7zn6al2bct

NFL RealGM (Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys (-3): Expect some sacks. Detroit and Dallas rank 2nd and 3rd in sack percentage through three games, a stat which likely surprises casual fans of both teams, let alone the general NFL fan. The difference in the game, and the reason why I like the Lions to pull off the road upset, is the offensive line discrepancy. Believe it or not, Detroit’s has been significantly better at protecting Matthew Stafford than Dallas’ vaunted line has at keeping Dak Prescott upright. Stafford is the least-sacked QB in the league per dropback; he goes down on just 2 percent of his dropbacks. Prescott is in the bottom five for sack percentage, going down on over 10 percent of his pass sets.  Lions 33, Cowboys 31):  https://football.realgm.com/analysis/3071/Football-Meteorology-NFL-Picks-For-Week-4

Detroit News predictions: Lions vs. Cowboys (Lions, 23-20; Cowboys, 20-13; Lions, 24-20): https://www.detroitnews.com/story/sports/nfl/lions/2018/09/28/detroit-news-predictions-detroit-lions-vs-dallas-cowboys/1447205002/

Freep Picks (Lions 23, Cowboys 17; Lions 20, Cowboys 16; Cowboys 16, Lions 13; Cowboys 21, Lions 17): https://www.freep.com/story/sports/nfl/lions/2018/09/29/lions-cowboys-predictions/1460098002/

CBS Breech's Picks (Cowboys 20-17):   https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/nfl-week-4-picks-rams-steamroll-vikings-steelers-win-afc-north-shootout-over-ravens/

CBS Prisco's Picks (The Lions are coming off an impressive showing against the Patriots last Sunday night, a game they hope to build on going forward. But this is a tough spot on the road against a Cowboys defense that can get after the quarterback. Look for that defense to get after Matt Stafford. Cowboys take it at home. Pick: Cowboys 23, Lions 18):   https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/pete-priscos-nfl-week-4-picks-vikings-rams-a-nail-biter-broncos-upset-chiefs-juggernaut/

PFT’S WEEK FOUR PICKS (Lions at Cowboys:  MDS’s take: Are the real Lions the team that got blown out by the Jets, or the team that dominated the Patriots? I’m betting on the former.  MDS’s pick: Cowboys 24, Lions 17.  Florio’s take: It’s destined to be an up-and-down year for Dallas, and they’re due to put enough together defensively to end up doing just enough offensively to win.  Florio’s pick: Cowboys 17, Lions 13.):   https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2018/09/27/pfts-week-four-picks-9/

The MMQB Week 4 Picks (6 pick the Lions to win, 1 picks the Cowboys to win):   https://www.si.com/nfl/2018/expert-game-picks-football-sports-illustrated-mmqb-staff

Pro Football Weekly's Week 4 predictions (2 pick the Lions; 2 pick the Cowboys):   https://www.profootballweekly.com/2018/09/28/pro-football-weeklys-week-4-predictions/a6bg2tw/

ESPN Picks (7 pick the Cowboys to win, 4 pick the Lions):   http://www.espn.com/nfl/picks

CBS Expert picks (5 pick the Cowboys, 3 pick the Lions):   https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/features/writers/expert/picks/straight-up/4

USA Today Picks (4 pick the Cowboys to win, 1 picks the Lions):   https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/2018/09/27/usa-today-week-4-nfl-picks-steelers-ravens-afc-north/1443008002/

Average Prediction (329-311/16):  Lions win 21-19.   25 experts pick the Cowboys, 23 experts pick the Lions to win.