PFN Rolfe (Washington Commanders at Detroit Lions (-8.5): The Washington Commanders’ reward for their final-second victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Wild Card Weekend is a trip to the statistically speaking most dominant team in the regular season, the Detroit Lions. The Lions topped our Power Rankings coming out of the regular season, and no one was really even that close. The distance in our metrics between the Lions and Baltimore Ravens in second was the same as the difference between the Ravens and the Los Angeles Rams in 10th. The Commanders were just above the Rams, ranked ninth coming out of the regular season, and are now sixth-highest ranked among the remaining nine teams. Detroit enters this game with the highest-ranked offense in the NFL, the fifth-ranked defense, and a seventh-ranked special teams, all while playing the seventh-toughest schedule. The Commanders head in with the sixth-ranked offense, the 17th-ranked defense, and the 10th-ranked special teams but have played the easiest schedule in the NFL this season. With two offenses ranked inside the top six, it would be a surprise if this game was a defensive masterclass, as the total demonstrated. The Lions have scored 30+ points in their last five games and have allowed over 30 in three of their final five. Washington’s games have been a little bit lower scoring, but two of the last five have gone over 50 points. This game feels high at a total of 55.5, but Detroit’s games have been wild at times this season. Given the potentially cagey nature of these playoff games in the first half so far, I would lean towards the under. Yet, this game has a wide range of outcomes when it comes to the final score, and for that reason, I will probably avoid playing the total. Our metrics give the Lions a 64.6% chance of winning, while the sportsbooks have them with an implied probability of 83.9%. Therefore, our metrics would lean towards the Commanders covering but the Lions winning. Given the way Detroit has blown some teams out, backing Washington +8.5 is a risky proposition. Teasing the Lions down to -2.5 may well be the better play. Prediction: Lions 30, Commanders 23): https://www.profootballnetwork.com/early-nfl-picks-predictions-divisional-round-2025/
USA Today Tyler Dragon - NFL divisional playoff predictions: Who will win every matchup for the next round? (No 1. Detroit Lions vs. No 7. Washington Commanders - The Commanders won their first playoff game since 2005. Their reward is a trip to Detroit for a meeting against the Lions on Saturday night. Dan Quinn, Jayden Daniels and Bobby Wagner have spearheaded a remarking turnaround for the Commanders. Daniels is on his way to winning NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. He is the fourth rookie quarterback in NFL history to start and win 13 games, including the postseason. However, the Commanders’ magical season will end in the Motor City. I predict the Lions’ physicality upfront will overwhelm Washington. Detroit possessed the sixth-best rushing attack in the NFL, and they will get back David Montgomery to pair with Jahmyr Gibbs. Daniels will give the Lions’ injury-riddle defense fits, but Aaron Glenn’s defensive unit will make just enough stops. Detroit ends Washington’s improbable season. Score prediction: Lions 31-25): https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/2025/01/13/nfl-divisional-round-playoff-predictions/77663603007/
Freep Ramsey Lions vs Commanders betting odds, prediction, channel in divisional round (Lions vs. Commanders divisional round prediction - Jared Ramsey, Detroit Free Press: The Commanders have been one of the best stories in the NFL this season, going from four wins to 12 wins in just one calendar year. But the roster is still a step below the Lions in terms of talent on both sides of the ball. Washington exceeded odds and got to the dance immediately, while the Lions slowly built to the point of being one of the best, if not THE best, NFL teams over three seasons. Daniels will cause issues for an aggressive Detroit linebacker group that has struggled to contain running quarterbacks. But the Lions will sell out to stop running back Brian Robinson and the run, and the rookie quarterback will have to make some big-time throws while 65,000 scream at him from the stands. On the other side, the Lions' offense should have no issues finding a weakness in a defense that ranked 18th in points allowed and 30th in running defense. Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery, who is expected to return from a knee injury after missing the previous three games, will have big days to lead the Lions to the NFC championship game. The pick: Lions 35, Commanders 17.): https://www.freep.com/story/sports/nfl/lions/2025/01/12/detroit-lions-washington-commanders-betting-odds-pick-tv-in-divisional-round/77658078007/
SN Iyer (Commanders at Lions (-9.5, 55.5 o/u)): The Lions' defense has overachieved through injuries and is hoping to get a little healthier again to face red-hot rookie Jayden Daniels. But this is a tough matchup for Detroit because of Daniels' two dynamic dimensions of firing deep shots and taking off outside. Washington's offense will need to be aggressive and not force the traditional power run too much. The Lions, however, also will be able to exploit the Commanders' run defense plenty with Jahmyr Gibbs and burn them in the slot with Amon-Ra St. Brown. Daniels gets a little more heat than Jared Goff as the Lions survive for a second straight NFC championship trip. Pick: Lions win 31-27 but fail to cover the spread.): https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/news/nfl-picks-predictions-against-spread-divisional-playoffs/4f905a3d003eb2daf4467d82
SN Bender (Washington Commanders at Detroit Lions (-8.5): The Lions had a week to rest, and that should help a defense that worked back linebacker Alex Anzalone late in the season. Can the Commanders' pass defense, which limited the Buccaneers to 183 yards in the NFC wild-card round, throw off the timing for Jared Goff, who had 21 TDs, six interceptions, and a 110.3 passer rating at home this season? How much will cornerback Mashon Lattimore be able to slow down Amon-Ra St. Brown, who had six or more catches in every home game and averaged 81.2 receiving yards per game? David Montgomery (knee) also is expected to return, but Jahmyr Gibbs is poised to be a playoff star here. It's a lot for rookie Jayden Daniels to overcome after his first playoff start, but the Commanders will have a chance if they limit turnovers. They have eight giveaways in their six-game winning streak, and five of them were in the same game, a 36-33 shootout against Philadelphia. The Lions, however, were 4-2 ATS when favored by seven points or more this season, including a 3-1 ATS mark at home. Pick: Lions 34, Commanders 19): https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/news/nfl-picks-predictions-playoffs-bills-ravens-chiefs-texans/7d5a764f32da3e025cffafe6
CBS Breech (The pick: Commanders 34-31 over Lions): https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/2025-nfl-playoff-bracket-prediction-and-picks-commanders-shock-lions-in-divisional-round-ravens-top-bills/
Walter football (Week 20 NFL Pick: Lions 34, Redskins 28): https://walterfootball.com/nflpicks2024_20early.php
CBS Sullivan (Washington Commanders (6) at Detroit Lions (1)
Saturday, 8 p.m. ET (Fox, stream on fubo): The Commanders have been one of the more entertaining stories throughout the NFL this season, and are a dangerous team to face. Even when they seem to be dead in the water, Jayden Daniels is able to surge his team to victory. Washington should be a postseason threat for years to come, but I think their story comes to a close in Detroit. The key angle here is the Lions ability to pound the football on the ground, especially as they are set to get David Montgomery back. The Commanders have been among the worst rushing defenses in the NFL this season, which plays directly into the hands of Jahmyr Gibbs and Montgomery. If they find success on the ground, that not only helps the offense force their way down the field, but it also keeps Daniels on the sideline. Meanwhile, when the Commanders are on offense, the Lions have the tools to slow them down. Aaron Glenn's defense is No. 1 in the league on third down, and Amik Robertson just showed us in Week 18 against Minnesota vs. Justin Jefferson that he's capable of shutting down a top receiving option like Terry McLaurin. Projected scores: Lions 33, Commanders 21): https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/nfl-playoff-bracket-odds-best-bets-for-divisional-round-rams-shock-eagles-with-upset-win-ravens-beat-bills/
CBS Prisco (Washington Commanders (+9.5) at Detroit Lions
Saturday, 8 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo try for free): This should be high scoring. The Lions are dynamic on offense and have defensive issues. The Commanders, with rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels, can score as well. Daniels will be even more electrifying inside on the fast track. But the Lions will get theirs as well. The Commanders might not be ready to win a game like this, especially in this environment, but they will hang around. Daniels is that good. Lions defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn will send a lot of looks at Daniels, but he will hold up and make some big plays with his legs against the blitz. But in the end, it will be the Lions who advance with a strong showing from their offense, led by Jared Goff. He will hit some big shots down the field against the Commanders secondary to win it. Pick: Lions 34, Commanders 31): https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/priscos-nfl-playoff-picks-for-divisional-round-ravens-bills-comes-down-to-a-field-goal-nfc-favorites-tested/
Pro Picks: Chiefs, Bills, Lions and Eagles will advance to the conference championships (Washington (13-5) at Detroit (15-2) - Line: Lions minus 9 1/2. The Commanders keep finding ways to win late with five straight victories coming down to the final play. The victory in Tampa Bay was the franchise’s first playoff win since 2006. Daniels connected often with Terry McLaurin and Dyami Brown, but Washington will need Brian Robinson and Austin Ekeler to run more effectively to have a chance against Detroit. A defense that held Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers to their worst game in eight weeks has to step up against the most dynamic offense in the NFL. The Lions could get running back David Montgomery back to join Jahmyr Gibbs in an elite backfield. That should open things up even more for Jared Goff throwing to All-Pro wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown and other playmakers. Since the NFL expanded to 14 playoff teams with only two getting a bye, No. 1 seeds are 3-5 against the spread in the divisional round. Teams that won as an underdog in the wild-card round are 2-20 straight up and 10-12 ATS in the divisional round. LIONS: 30-24): https://apnews.com/article/nfl-pro-picks-divisional-round-6719411d0d1f02225174348d43b186e9
CBS Dajani (Washington at Detroit: What Jayden Daniels has done for Washington is arguably the story of the year in the NFL. Our friends in D.C. had to suffer through decades of bad football and a generic name change that people still don't love. Speaking of change, the fans got the ownership overhaul they had been craving, which immediately hit on a franchise quarterback, and are now ready to take off. Could the Commanders pull off the unthinkable on Saturday? After all, Washington is 3-0 vs. Detroit in the playoffs! It would take too long to list all of Daniels' accomplishments this season, but it's worth bringing up that he's just the fourth rookie quarterback to win a road playoff game, and is the only rookie to throw two touchdowns in a road playoff victory. Keeping pace with the No. 1 scoring offense from the regular season is going to be key, and that's where Terry McLaurin is important. His eight receiving touchdowns since Week 12 are the most in the NFL. I have a hard time believing the Lions defense is all of a sudden elite just because Alex Anzalone is back. Yes, he's a very important player, but the Lions still have five Week 1 defensive starters on injured reserve, which will match the most Week 1 defensive starters to miss a playoff game by any team since 1970. Still, can Washington outscore Jared Goff and Co.? I don't think so. The pick: Lions -9.5. Projected score: Lions 30-20): https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/2025-nfl-divisional-round-picks-lamar-jackson-defeats-josh-allen-while-patrick-mahomes-scrapes-by-texans/
NFL.com NFL Divisional Round game picks: Top-seeded Lions and Chiefs avoid upsets; Ravens or Bills in epic tilt? (Lions 30-21, Lions 30-22, Lions 33-23, Lions 32-23, Lions 30-25): https://www.nfl.com/news/nfl-picks-divisional-round-2024-nfl-season
Yahoo Schwab Commanders-Lions preview: Will Detroit's Super Bowl dreams be derailed by Jayden Daniels? (Prediction - Jayden Daniels is already in that rare category of quarterback who scares the heck out of opponents, no matter the situation. Has there ever been another rookie quarterback who you'd trust more in a road playoff game against a No. 1 seed? Even if Daniels has a huge game, the Lions can outscore just about anyone if they have to. The Commanders have had a fun season but other than Daniels, this is a good matchup for the Lions. If Detroit loses as a big favorite at home, it would be beyond devastating for the Lions fans praying to see their team make the Super Bowl for the first time. Lions 34, Commanders 24): https://sports.yahoo.com/commanders-lions-preview-will-detroits-super-bowl-dreams-be-derailed-by-jayden-daniels-175643592.html
PFT’s 2024 NFL divisional picks, Florio vs. Simms (Commanders at Lions (-9.5): If the Commanders keep it close, they can win. Chris doesn’t think they’ll keep it close; I do. Ultimately, we both see Detroit advancing. Florio: Lions, 27-24. Simms: Lions, 34-21.): https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profootballtalk/rumor-mill/news/pfts-2024-nfl-divisional-picks-florio-vs-simms
SN Piva NFL Playoffs divisional round best bets, picks ATS & player props: Bills edge Ravens, Commanders cover and more (SCORE PREDICTION: Lions 33, Commanders 27): https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/news/nfl-playoffs-divisional-round-best-bets-picks-ats-props/0e8d22d6ed070db14b5a5491
Adam Kilgore, Washington Post (Lions 30, Commanders 24: Kilgore points out the Lions, under Defensive Coordinator Aaron Glenn, have stuck to their principles on that side of the ball, playing man coverage even after a wave of injuries. Glenn's philosophy has limited mobile quarterbacks like Kyler Murray, Caleb Williams and Anthony Richardson, but Kilgore nodded to Josh Allen's week 15 performance in Detroit where he picked apart the Lions defense on the way to a 48-42 win for the Buffalo Bills. Even with Daniels' running threat, Kilgore says the Lions will be able to outscore Washington and move on.): https://www.freep.com/story/sports/nfl/lions/2025/01/16/lions-commanders-predictions-scoreline-picks-for-playoff-matchup/77743173007/
Sports Illustrated Commanders vs. Lions Final Score Prediction for NFL Divisional Round (Final score prediction: Lions 38, Commanders 31): https://www.si.com/betting/commanders-vs-lions-final-score-prediction-nfl-divisional-round-expect-high-scoring-affair
CBS DeArdo Commanders vs. Lions where to watch: NFL kickoff time, TV, live stream, odds, pick for NFC playoff game (Score: Lions 31, Commanders 27): https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/commanders-vs-lions-where-to-watch-nfl-kickoff-time-tv-live-stream-odds-pick-for-nfc-playoff-game/
MLive’s Ben Raven (Pick: Lions 24, Commanders 17. “Detroit will control this game on the ground, so don’t get too lost in that close score. I think the Lions jump out all over the Commanders and ride that ground game to the win. Jayden Daniels will get some points on the board late, but this will be a controlling, business-like win.”): https://www.mlive.com/lions/2025/01/lions-commanders-predictions-can-detroit-slow-down-washingtons-rookie-qb.html
USA Today Commanders at Lions: Predictions, picks, odds for NFL divisional round game (Both pick the Lions to win by scores of 35-21, 34-31): https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/2025/01/17/commanders-lions-picks-predictions-odds-divisional-round/77677537007/
CFN Washington Commanders vs Detroit Lions Prediction, NFC Divisional Playoff Game Preview and NFL Betting Lines (Prediction: Detroit 37, Washington 27): https://collegefootballnews.com/nfl/commanders-vs-lions-nfc-playoff-prediction-betting-lines
Fox sports Lions vs. Commanders 2024 Divisional Round Prediction, Odds, Picks - Jan 18 (Prediction: Lions 33 - Commanders 19): https://www.foxsports.com/articles/nfl/lions-vs-commanders-2024-divisional-round-prediction-odds-picks-jan-18
Everything you need to know for four NFL divisional round games: Score picks, predictions and storylines (Kahler's pick: Lions 38, Commanders 30, Moody's pick: Lions 34, Commanders 24, Walder's pick: Lions 42, Commanders 28): https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/page/nflviewguide-43441049/nfl-divisional-round-playoffs-picks-schedule-odds-injuries-stats-2024-2025
Detroit News (All 4 pick the Lions to win by scores of 34-28, 34-21, 34-21, 38-27): https://www.detroitnews.com/story/sports/nfl/lions/2025/01/17/predictions-detroit-lions-vs-commanders-nfc-divisional-round/77681408007/
Fox sports NFL Divisional Round Pick 'Em: Predictions for FOX Super 6 by Chris 'The Bear' Fallica
National Football League (Prediction: Lions 31, Commanders 17): https://www.foxsports.com/stories/nfl/2024-nfl-divisional-round-pick-em-predictions-fox-super-6-chris-the-bear-fallica
SI Lions Predictions: Lions-Commanders (All 3 pick the Lions to win by scores of 38-27, 30-24, 27-17): https://www.si.com/nfl/lions/news/predictions-lions-commanders-playoffs
Freep (All 4 pick the Lions to win by scores of 30-17, 31-24, 31-21, 27-21): https://www.freep.com/story/sports/nfl/lions/2025/01/18/lions-commanders-predictions-picks-nfl-playoffs/77753824007/
Commanders Wire Prediction and betting odds for Commanders vs. Lions in NFC divisional round (Both pick the Lions to win by scores of 35-24, 34-24): https://commanderswire.usatoday.com/2025/01/18/commanders-lions-odds-picks-predictions-nfl-nfc-divisional-round/
Lions vs Commanders: Last-minute thoughts and final score prediction (Final score prediction - The bottom line is simple: if the Lions play at a B-level or better, Washington would need a near-miraculous game to beat them in Detroit. If the Lions aren’t sharp from the get-go, Washington has the ability to pull it off. They don’t know they’re not supposed to win, and that makes them dangerous; Campbell’s Lions have worn that hat very nicely and I think the Commanders will too. But not today… Lions 33, Commanders 24): https://lionswire.usatoday.com/2025/01/18/lions-vs-commanders-game-preview-matchup-last-minute-thoughts-score-prediction/
USA Today (All 4 pick the Lions to win by scores of 34-28, 36-28, 41-34, 31-24): https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl-picks/2025/01/18/nfl-playoff-divisional-round-picks-spread-predictions-bills-ravens/77754256007/
Sports Book Wire NFC Divisional Round: Washington Commanders at Detroit Lions odds, picks and predictions (Prediction - Lions 31, Commanders 23): https://sportsbookwire.usatoday.com/2025/01/18/nfc-divisional-round-washington-commanders-at-detroit-lions-odds-picks-and-predictions/
SI Commanders Staff Predictions Ahead of Commanders vs. Lions Divisional Round Matchup (3 pick the Lions to win by scores of 31-20, 30-24, 31-24. 1 picks the Commanders to win 24-21): https://www.si.com/nfl/commanders/news/staff-predictions-ahead-of-washington-commanders-vs-detroit-lions-divisional-round-matchup
NFL.com (9 pick the Lions to win by scores of 30-27, 33-26, 24-14, 27-20, 30-23, 38-24, 35-25, 33-24, 30-25. 1 picks the Commanders 30-27): https://www.nfl.com/videos/commanders-vs-lions-preview-nfc-divisional-round
Non-Score Picks:
SI (All 7 pick the Lions to win): https://www.si.com/nfl/2024-nfl-divisional-round-staff-expert-picks
FTW (All 7 pick the Lions to win): https://ftw.usatoday.com/2025/01/nfl-straight-up-picks-divisional-round-ravens-bills-eagles-rams
Athletic (All 7 pick the Lions to win): https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6067696/2025/01/18/commanders-lions-how-to-watch-odds-picks-betting-playoffs/
Big Lead NFL Playoffs 2025: Previewing Commanders vs. Lions Divisional round matchup (Sam Westmoreland picks the Lions to win): https://www.thebiglead.com/nfl-playoffs-2025-previewing-commanders-vs-lions-divisional-round-matchup
CBS (All 5 pick the Lions to win): https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/picks/experts/straight-up/20/
ESPN (9 pick the Lions to win. 1 picks the Commanders): https://www.espn.com/nfl/picks/_/seasontype/3/week/2
100 Pick the Lions to win. 3 pick the Commanders to win. The Average Predicted Score is (2125-1584/66): Lions 32 Commanders 24
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